According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, the average total cost of China's alumina industry including tax in July 2025 was 2,933.21 yuan per ton, a decrease of 23 yuan per ton compared to 2,956.21 yuan per ton in June, representing a month-on-month decline of 0.78% and a year-on-year increase of 2.57%. In July, the prices of alumina raw materials fluctuated both. In terms of ores, the supply of bauxite remains tight, and the market performance is rather stagnant, with the price of bauxite rising slightly. In the liquid caustic soda market, the demand for liquid caustic soda has been poor. To boost sales, enterprises have reduced their prices, which has led to a decline in the price of liquid caustic soda. The thermal coal market has entered the peak electricity consumption period of summer, and the demand has improved somewhat, causing the price of thermal coal to rise slightly. Overall, the price of liquid caustic soda has dropped significantly, resulting in a slight reduction in the cost of the alumina industry.
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, the average comprehensive electricity price for China's electrolytic aluminum industry in July 2025 was 0.3923 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 0.0161 yuan per kilowatt-hour compared to 0.4084 yuan per kilowatt-hour in June 2025, representing a decline of 3.94%, and a drop of 4.15% compared to the same period last year. The average electricity price in 2025 was 0.4174 yuan per kilowatt-hour. In terms of thermal power, the electricity price of thermal power has a certain delaying effect on the price of thermal coal. In June, the downstream demand was poor, and the domestic thermal coal price trend was sluggish, which drove down the price of thermal power. In terms of hydropower, the flood season has led to a continued decline in hydropower prices. Overall, the comprehensive electricity price for the electrolytic aluminum industry declined in July, with the decline rate expanding. In July, the market trading activity increased, and the domestic thermal coal price center shifted upward, which will drive the thermal power price to rise slightly in August. However, there is an expectation that the hydropower price may continue to fall. Overall, it is expected that the comprehensive electricity price for the electrolytic aluminum industry will have limited month-on-month changes in August 2025.
3. Average cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in July 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, the average tax-inclusive production cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in July 2025 was 16,162.98 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.79% month-on-month and 7.54% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the average tax-inclusive production cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 17,088.95 yuan per ton. In July 2025, the average full cost (including sales) of China's electrolytic aluminum industry including tax was 16,533.45 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.72% compared with the previous month. From January to July 2025, the average full cost (including sales) of China's electrolytic aluminum industry including tax was 17,455.45 yuan per ton. In terms of alumina, the tight supply situation persisted in July, and the price of alumina generally showed an upward trend. However, due to the relatively low price of alumina at the beginning of this month, the overall settlement price of alumina in July dropped - the settlement price of alumina in July (June 26- July 25) was 3,162 yuan per ton, a decrease of 92 yuan per ton compared with the previous month, representing a decline of 2.83%. In terms of pre-baked anodes, the benchmark purchase price of pre-baked anodes for a certain aluminum plant in Shandong Province in July 2025 dropped by 190 yuan per ton compared with the price in June, and the current exchange rate was 4,749 yuan per ton. In terms of electricity prices, the average comprehensive usage electricity price for China's electrolytic aluminum industry in July 2025 was 0.3923 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease compared to the previous month. Overall, due to the decline in raw material prices, the tax-inclusive production costs of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased in July. In terms of price, the national settlement price of Baichuan Yingfu spot market in July 2025 (June 26- July 25) was 20,673.32 yuan per ton, an increase of 282.37 yuan per ton compared with the previous month, representing a growth of 1.38%. Based on production costs, the theoretical average profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry in July 2025 was 4,510.34 yuan per ton, an increase of 19.80% compared with the previous month. The industry continued to maintain a significant profit. In August 2025, it is expected that the prices of pre-baked anodes and electricity will not fluctuate much, and the settlement price of alumina may rise slightly. It is comprehensively estimated that the theoretical cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry in August will remain basically stable.
