China's alumina output in July 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, China's alumina output in July 2025 was 7.704 million tons, an increase of 5.13% year-on-year. The average daily output was 248,500 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to the 248,300 tons in June 2025. In July, the supply of alumina was partially tight. Previously, alumina enterprises had resumed profitability. In July, the profit margins of alumina enterprises were still acceptable, and their production willingness was generally high, with the operating capacity remaining at a relatively high level. However, during the month, some enterprises successively carried out maintenance on their roasting furnaces, causing a temporary tight supply in some areas, which provided certain support for the price of alumina. This was reflected in the daily output, which slightly increased in July.
At present, the operating capacity of alumina enterprises is at a relatively high level. Among them, the supply of alumina in the north is relatively loose, while the supply of alumina in the south is still slightly tight. In the short term, the changes in the operating capacity of the alumina market may be relatively limited, and the supply of alumina in August may still remain the same as in July. It is expected that the daily output of China's alumina industry in August 2025 will increase slightly compared with July. The domestic output of alumina in China in August was approximately 7.76 million tons.
China's electrolytic aluminum output in July 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, China's primary aluminum output in July 2025 was 3.7396 million tons, an increase of 1.82% year-on-year and 3.41% month-on-month. The average daily output was 120,600 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous month, with an annualized output of 44.0308 million tons. In July, the electrolytic aluminum industry witnessed both increased and decreased production: electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Qinghai region replaced their capacity on the spot, and electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong region was transferred to Yunnan region. However, this had no impact on the total theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry. In addition, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guizhou region continued to resume production. By the end of July, the planned resumption capacity of the enterprise had been basically released. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi region have released technological transformation capacity. As of July 31, 2025, the operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 43.995 million tons, an increase of 55,000 tons compared with the previous period. In August 2025, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi will continue to resume production, and Shandong will continue to implement the plan to transfer production capacity to Yunnan. Overall, it is expected that the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry will increase slightly in August. Based on the current increase and decrease in production, it is estimated that China's electrolytic aluminum output will be approximately 3.745 million tons in August 2025, and the daily chemical output will be about 120,800 tons, with a slight increase in average daily output.
3. China's aluminum bar output in July 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, China's aluminum water bar output in July 2025 was 1.2231 million tons, an increase of 8.33% year-on-year and 0.08% month-on-month. The average daily output was 39,500 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared to the average daily output in June 2025. This month, both increased and decreased production by aluminum bar enterprises were reflected. In terms of increased production: It is mainly reflected in Gansu, Guangxi, Guizhou, Qinghai, Shandong, Shanxi and Xinjiang regions. The increase in production at the two bar factories in Gansu and Guangxi is mainly due to the completion of furnace maintenance. During the technological transformation period, a small factory in Guizhou region produced more aluminum rods. A major factory in Qinghai Province has been operating at full capacity since July. This is mainly due to the reduced purchase of molten aluminum by other downstream processing enterprises in the park. All the molten aluminum provided to this factory is used for the production of aluminum rods. A small factory in Shandong has completed maintenance and increased production. Additionally, three large factories have also increased production of aluminum rods due to increased orders. A self-supplied aluminum water bar factory in Shanxi Province has seen a slight increase in orders and production. The second plant of a major factory in Xinjiang has been newly put into operation, with an additional 200,000 tons of completed production capacity. The output in July increased significantly. In terms of production cuts: Aluminum bar factories in Gansu, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shandong and Xinjiang have reduced production. Two factories in Gansu have cut production due to a decline in orders. The production cut at Guangxi Bar Factory A is mainly due to furnace maintenance, the production cut at Factory B is mainly due to the increase in aluminum rods, and the production cut at Factory C is mainly caused by order and cost pressure. The reduction in production at the bar factory in Inner Mongolia is mainly due to the current low processing fees for aluminum bars, which are difficult to cover their production costs and increase the output of aluminum ingots. A major factory in Qinghai region has slightly reduced the production of aluminum rods according to orders. A major factory in Shandong has increased production of aluminum rods and reduced production of aluminum bars. In Xinjiang region, A-bar factories have reduced production of aluminum bars due to demand, and B-bar factories have also cut production due to technological transformation. Overall, the average daily output of aluminum bars slightly decreased in July 2025.
According to Yuefeng Aluminum, in terms of production increase: The second phase project of a certain bar factory in Chongqing has been put into operation and is currently operating at full capacity, and the second phase of a large factory in Xinjiang is also operating at full capacity. Enterprises in Guangxi region that underwent maintenance in the early stage have resumed production. In terms of production reduction: A major factory in Shandong plans to install an aluminum rod production line in mid-August, which may lead to a decrease in the daily output of aluminum rods at that time. Enterprises undergoing technological transformation in Guizhou region plan to produce large flat ingots in August, which will reduce the production of aluminum rods. Overall, Baichuan Yingfu expects the average daily production of aluminum water bars in August 2025 to increase compared to July 2025.
4. Monthly Supply and Demand Balance Comparison of Alumina and electrolytic aluminum in China in July 2025
According to statistics from Yuefeng Aluminum, in July 2025, China's output of metallurgical grade alumina was 7.704 million tons. Calculated based on actual arrivals at ports (excluding customs declaration time), China's imported alumina arrived at ports in July at 120,500 tons. The export volume in July, calculated based on the time of departure from the port (excluding the time of customs declaration), was 210,000 tons. About 200,000 tons of non-metallurgical grade alumina were used. China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7396 million tons. Calculated at a consumption of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, there was an oversupply of 197,100 tons of alumina in China in July, indicating a slight surplus in the alumina market.
5. Monthly Supply and Demand Balance comparison Forecast of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum in China in August 2025
Yuefeng Aluminum predicts that China's alumina output in August 2025 will be approximately 7.76 million tons, with about 200,000 tons for non-aluminum use. Regarding imported alumina, it is estimated that the import volume in August will be around 63,000 tons, the export volume about 195,000 tons, and the output of electrolytic aluminum about 3.745 million tons. Based on the calculation of 1.93 tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, It is estimated that in August, there will be an oversupply of 200,200 tons of alumina in China, with a slight surplus in the alumina market.
