Analysts say that although global copper supply is sufficient, the prospect of US import tariffs could drive copper prices to a record high, as the motivation to ship to the US will deplete inventories in other regions.
On Tuesday, the LME's three-month copper futures price soared to $14,343 per ton, approaching the historical high of $14,527.50. Previously, LME warehouses received 65,400 tons of copper pick-up orders.
Last week, copper inventories at the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, seemingly alleviating market concerns about supply shortages. Subsequently, there was a large-scale cancellation of warehouse certificates.
Analysts say that this copper price increase reflects a shortage of copper supply outside the US, rather than a global shortage of copper supply.
The rise in US copper prices prompted traders to ship copper into the registered warehouses of the COMEX in the US before the US might impose tariffs on refined copper in 2027, thereby reducing inventories in other regions and making the originally expected copper surplus market actually more tense.
Tariff threat reshapes the market
Robert Edwards, the chief copper analyst at the Copper Research Organization (CRU), said that if the copper in US inventories is no longer available, the tariff threat has "at best only marginally balanced the market" that was originally expected to have a copper surplus this year.
Due to traders taking advantage of the rise in COMEX copper futures prices for arbitrage trading, COMEX inventories have increased for 46 consecutive days, reaching a record 675,185 metric tons. CRU previously predicted that global copper supply would be surplus by 639,000 tons in 2026.
Analysts say that if (US) imports continue at the current level, the market actually looks like a supply shortage.
In the first half of 2026, the US imported nearly 885,000 tons of refined cathode copper, an increase of about 3% compared to the same period last year. At that time, the market also faced similar tariff threats; and the import volume in the first half of 2026 was more than double that of the first half of 2024.
In 2025, the US imported a record 16.4 million tons of copper. Last year, refined copper finally received tariff exemptions, which initially led to a sharp drop in copper prices. But the US Department of Commerce was originally scheduled to submit a copper market report to the White House by June 30 this year, so that President Trump could decide whether to impose a 15% tariff on copper from January 1, 2027, and gradually increase it to 30% from 2028.
Alice Fox, a strategist at Macquarie, said of COMEX copper inventories, "It will take several years to consume this copper." She added that although Macquarie believes copper prices face a greater downside risk, if Trump does impose tariffs, copper prices will "skyrocket significantly."
Glencore said that what drove the copper price increase was uncertainty, not tariffs. Glencore CEO Gary Nagel believes that any announcement regarding tariffs - whether zero tariffs, 15% tariffs, or 30% tariffs - could lead to a decline in copper prices, as the market will eventually have a clearer understanding of the situation.
He said that the US will have a large amount of copper inventories, which will be consumed over time for its own consumption... and will not be exported again because the export cost is high. Copper stored in the COMEX warehouses has already paid tariffs.
If these inventories remain in the US, other regions will continue to face a supply shortage situation. Ms. Fu, the head of China Bank's international commodities market strategy, said that as the world's largest copper smelting country, China, due to strong domestic demand and limited capacity, is difficult to make up for the supply shortage in other regions.
Ms. Fu stated that the low inventory levels, the disruption of mining operations, and the shutdown of the Griskik smelter in Indonesia have all exacerbated the tight market supply situation. Therefore, in the coming weeks or months, we may witness a new high in copper prices.
